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国内生产总值影响因素的计量分析
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摘 要
自党的十一届三中全会以来,我国进入了改革开放的新时期。30多年来,我国的经济建设取得了令世人瞩目的巨大成就——国内经济持续高速增长,基本实现总体小康,人民生活水平显著提高,综合国力不断增强,国际地位也显著提高。国民经济繁荣给中国的发展带来了昂扬的生命力。而GDP是衡量一国经济增长的重要指标,因此,对国内生产总值影响因素的经济分析研究具有十分重要意义。本文采用经济增长模型和多元线性回归分析方法对1992~2011年国内生产总值的影响因素进行研究,分析了消费、财政支出和进出口对经济发展的影响,建立计量模型,寻求这些变量与GDP的数量关系,进行定量分析以及检验,并根据所得结论提出一些可行性的相关建议。
关键词:国内生产总值 消费 财政支出 净出口 计量分析
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目 录
1 前言·····························································3
2 理论综述·························································3
国内生产总值···················································3
2.2 影响因素分析···················································3
3 实证模型构建·····················································4
3.1 数据收集·······················································4
3.2 模型设计·······················································5
建立模型·····················································5
3. 模型参数估计·················································
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4 模型检验·························································6
统计推断检验···················································6
.1 经济意义检验·················································6
4.1.2 R^2检验······················································6
4.1.3 t检验·························································6
4. F检验························································7
计量经济检验···················································7
4. 多重共线性检验················································7
异方差检验···················································11
4. 自相关检验
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4. 最终结果·····················································14
5 结论与说明·······················································14
6 实****感悟·······································
计量经济国内生产总值影响因素计量分析 来自淘豆网www.taodocs.com转载请标明出处.