针对系统动力学的商业地产项目经济评价.pdf

II摘要近二十年来,我国房地产得到快速发展。房地产可以划分为住宅地产和商业地产。自二零零二年以来,我国产业结构的调整和城市化进程的推进扩大了商业地产的市场需求;扩大内需、促进消费的经济增长政策拓宽了商业地产的市场空间;房地产“新政”和“限购令”等宏观调控政策也促使开发商转向商业地产这个新的战略活动空间。我国商业地产正处于高速发展阶段。然而,商业地产运营是一个系统工程,商业地产项目开发具有明显的差异性,其开发周期长、投资大、受经济发展和政策的影响大,整个开发过程风险大于纯住宅地产项目。近年来大量资金投入到商业地产这一领域,部分城市甚至已经产能过剩,在金融危机的冲击下,商业地产项目空置面积的不断增加,项目的不断死亡的状况也暴露出我国商业地产投资领域普遍投资决策水平不高,缺乏理性投资和科学决策等诸多问题。在这样的背景下,本文将系统动力学原理运用到商业地产建设项目经济评价研究中,建立了商业地产项目经济评价的系统动力学仿真模型。以Vensim软件作为计算动态模拟机仿真的基本手段,实现了定量分析、预测反映商业地产项目投资建设与运营微观经济效果的各种指标的变化趋势,从而掌握商业地产项目盈利能力、清偿能力及不确定性因素对项目经济可行性的影响程度。并进行了实证分析,结果证明该评价模型具有一定的可操作性和可靠性,为商业地产投资者提供一些思想、方法和工具,同时也为商业地产的持续健康发展提供有益的借鉴和参考。关键词:系统动力学;商业地产项目;经济评价IIIAbstractOver the past 20 years, china's real estate by rapid development. Real estate can be divided into residential real estate mercial real estate. Since 2002, china's industrial restructuring and the process of urbanization to promote the expansion of commercial real estate market demand ; expanding domestic demand, promoting the economic growth of consumption policies to mercial real estate markets ; real estate" New Deal " and " quota " macro -control policies also encourage developers to turn the new strategy of commercial real estate activity space. Commercial real estate in our country is in the middle of a high -speed development , commercial real estate operation is a systems engineering, commercial real estate projects have obvious differences and their development needs long time and investment, economic development and policy implications, the entire development process risk is greater than pure residential property projects. A large amount of capital into mercial real estate in this field in recent years, Some cities even have surplus production capacity, under the impact of the financial crisis, increasing vacancy mercial real estate projects and projects continue to death situation will also expose our business generally do not have a high level of investment decision in rea