证券投资学第9章.ppt

第九章普通股票的定价 Evaluation only. Evaluation only. Created with Client Profile . Created with Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. 4基本面分析(fundamental analysis) –为了确定股票的合理价格,必须预测公司的红利和收益。–折现率 4公司在商业上的成功决定它支付给股东的红利,以及股票市场上该公司股票的价格。 Evaluation only. Evaluation only. Created with Client Profile . Created with Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. 4 Top-down analysis – macroeconomic and industry analysis – firm-specific analysis Evaluation only. Evaluation only. Created with Client Profile . Created with Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. 4公司的前景与整个经济的前景相关,基本面分析必须考虑公司运作的经济环境 Evaluation only. Evaluation only. Created with Client Profile . Created with Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. 4全球经济–国际经济影响一个公司的出口,价格竞争, 国外投资的利润–国家的经济环境是各个行业业绩的一个重要决定因素–政治风险的影响–国际贸易政策和壁垒–汇率 Evaluation only. Evaluation only. Created with Client Profile . Created with Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. 4国内宏观经济–描述宏观经济状态的经济统计量? GDP, 就业率,通货膨胀,利率,预算赤字,消费者和生产者心理–把影响宏观经济的因素分成需求和供给冲击?需求冲击:降低税率,增加货币供给,增加政府花费,增加出口(总产出与利率同方向变动) ?供给冲击:进口石油价格,自然灾害,教育水平变化,增加工资(总产出与利率反方向变动) Evaluation only. Evaluation only. Created with Client Profile . Created with Client Profile . Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. 4政府宏观经济政策–影响需求政策: ?财政政策:最直接刺激经济或者减慢经济方式?货币政策:通过对利率的影响来间接影响经济–影响供给政策:提高经济系统的生产能力?激励机制,提高国民教育水平,基础建设,技术创新 Evaluation