中国银河券投资报告.doc

This report must be read with the disclosures and disclaimer in the appendies Investment Strategy For 2011 November 30 2010 Emerging and Consumer Goods Industries: Reform and Revaluation Key points: ? Be confident in the A share stock market. It is assumed that the fluctuation of posite Index will be in the range of 2,700 and 4,000 points. The index movements may have rising and fluctuating constantly with a low in the beginning and a high at the end. ? The stock market will be affected by inflation and policy changes. B ecause of growing inflation pressure , which leads toa prudent ary policy, tightening ary policy is highly expected. The inflation and policy changes are the important factors to determine the A share market movements. ? The stock market liquidity is adequate. Negative interest rate makes resident asset allocation more difficult. As a result, the stock market is the main place to maintain and increase the value of assets, thus, it will bea high possible event that resident saving moves to the stock market. ? Company profits increase steady and share evaluation is in the low-level. T profit of all panies in the A share stock market is estimated to grow 18% in 2011. There isa space to improve the whole share valuation, but it is just a little, as the large-cap stocks are undervalued and their small counterparts are relatively expensive. ? T he emerging and consumer goods industries are emphasized ,α strategy first, followed byβ. The emerging and consumer goods industries are revalued because of economy reform. Therefore, it is important to control investment and mainly implement the α strategy by focusing on the middle and small-cap growth firms. A nd then by increasing investment on periodical stocks in the second half year, the β strategy should be pay attention to. ? Portfolio : Dongfang Electric (600875), TBEA Group (600089), Datang Technology (600198), Neusoft (600718), Wisesoft (002253), Sound Environmental Resources (000826), Yili Industrial