Chap018权益估值模型.ppt

Chap018权益估值模型
The intrinsic value (IV) is the “true” value, according to a ，内在价值是真实价值
The market value (MV)值等于已有的资产价值
Plus the NPV of its future investments,再加上未来投资的净现值
Which is called the present value of growth opportunities or
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Present Value of Growth Opportunities增长机会现值模型
Price = No-growth value per share + PVGO 没有增长机会的价值+未来投资机会的现值
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Firm reinvests 60% of its earnings in projects with ROE of 10%, capitalization rate is 15%. Expected year-end dividend is $2/share, paid out of earnings of $5/%再投资于资产净收益10%的项目，期望股利为2元每股，每股盈余5元；
g=ROE x b = 10% x .6 = 6%
Example Growth Opportunities增长机会的例子
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Example Growth Opportunities增长机会
PVGO =Price per share – no-growth value per share增长机会价值为股价减去无增长的每股价值
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Life Cycles and Multistage Growth Models生命周期与多阶段增长模型
Expected dividends for Honda:
2010 $.50 2012 $ .83
2011 $.66 2013 $
本田公司的预期股利
Since the dividend payout ratio is 30% and ROE is 11%, the “steady-state” growth rate is %.
股利支付率30%，净资产收益11%，%=11*（1-）=
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Honda Example
Honda’s beta is and the risk-free rate is %. If the market risk premium is 8%, then k is:，%，如果加上市场风险溢价8%，那么：
k=% + (8%) = %
Therefore:
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Honda Example
Finally内在价值使用“股利贴现模型”
In 2009, one share of Honda Motor Company Stock was worth $.

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Price-Earnings Ratio and Growth市盈率与增长
The ratio of PVGO to E / k is the ratio of firm value due to growth opportunities to value due to assets already in place (., the no-growth value of the firm, E / k ).
增长机会的现值、已有资产的现值两部分
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Price-Earnings Ratio and Growth市盈率与增长
When PVGO=0, P0=E1 / k. The stock is valued like a nongrowing
P/E rises dramatically with
High P/E indicates that the firm has ample growth
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Price-Earnings Ratio and Growth市盈率与增长
P/E increases:市盈率增长
As ROE increases资产收益率增长
As plowback increases, as long as ROE