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摩根对腾讯的研究分析报告.pdf


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摩根对腾讯的研究分析报告.pdf
文档介绍:
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
ASIA/PACIFIC


Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Richard W Ji
Richard.Ji@
+852 2848 6926
Jenny Wu, CFA
Jenny.Wu@
+852 2848 6708
Lisa L Yuan
May 14, 2009 Lisa.Yuan@
+852 2239 7107
Philip Wan
Stock Rating Tencent Holdings Ltd. Philip.Wan@
Overweight +852 2848 8227
Industry View 1Q09: Enlarging Market
Attractive Share across the Board Key Ratios and Statistics
Reuters: 0700.HK Bloomberg: 700 HK
China
What's Changed Price target NA
Reported EPS ’09-’11 up 29% to 42% Upside to price target (%) -
Shr price, close (May 13, 2009) HK$72.80
52-Week Range HK$75.00-35.25

Earnings top: Tencent’s sales jumped 19% QoQ and Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 1,830
75% YoY to Rmb2.5bn in 1Q09, 16% above our forecast. Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb117,265
Diluted EPS grew 23% QoQ and doubled YoY, 26% EV, curr (mn) Rmb114,966
ahead of our estimate on strength in and mobile Avg daily trading value (mn) Rmb281

VAS.
Fiscal Year ending 12/07 12/08 12/09e 12/10e
EPS, basic (HK$)* 0.94 1.76 2.89 3.63
What we liked: 1) IVAS sales (76% of total) soared 29%
EPS (HK$)* 0.91 1.72 2.82 3.54
QoQ and 91% YoY, thanks to robust online game sales ModelWare EPS (HK$) 0.91 1.72 2.82 3.54
(+32% QoQ, 42% of total). 2) Mobile VAS sales (18% of Prior ModelWare EPS (HK$) - - 2.18 2.63
total) rebounded for the sixth quarter in a row (+10% Revenue, net (Rmb mn)§ 3,821 7,155 11,328 14,947
QoQ and 52% YoY), aided by SMS bundled packages, P/E 64.9 29.1 25.8 20.6
heavier promotions, and popular mobile games. P/BV 19.7 11.5 10.3 7.0
EV/EBITDA 54.5 21.8 20.0 14.7
What concerned us: Online ad sales (6% of total) Div yld (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
shrank 30% QoQ and rose only 1% YoY, hurt by the framework (please see explanation later in this note).
* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP
Chinese New Year holiday and delayed spending by § = The foreign exchange rate used in the tables above are provided by the Model
advertisers on the macro slowdown. That said, Tencent Ware, which may be slightly different from the one we used for other numbers in
the report. For this reason, the numbers for some ratios in the above tables could
expects an ad rebound in 2Q on better seasonality. be slightly different from the corresponding ones in the reports. i
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Firmer leadership across markets: Our DCF fair value
of HK$95.2 implies 30%+ share price upside. In our
view, as the largest “online park” in China, Tencent is in
a sweet spot for the Chinese online consumer boom: 1)
it ranks among the top three in online game sales in
China and added an industry-leading 5ppt of market
share in 2008. Debuted in 2008, Dungeon & Fighter and
Cross Fire became super blockbusters with 1-1.5mn
PCUs. 2) Tencent surpa 内容来自淘豆网www.taodocs.com转载请标明出处.
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