基于案例推理的航次决策方法研究.doc

基于案例推理的航次决策方法研究.doc基于案例推理的航次决策方法研究
摘要: 航次决策的能力是竞争取胜的关键,简单地做出决策很有可能给企业带来巨大的经济损失。而历史方案中蕴含了大量的经验性知识,将其合理地应用于当前决策中可以提高航次决策的准确性。本文遵循基于案例推理理论的核心思想,首先分析航次决策过程,构建航次决策案例库及索引。其次设计有效的案例推理算法,对航次决策模型的三类经验型输入进行推理。然后利用获得的所有输入求解航次决策模型获取最优的航次决策方案。最后,将研究的基于案例推理的航次决策方法与Uniwell(.)公司的实际应用相结合,分析验证方法的有效性。
Abstract: Capability of voyage decision is the key petition victory. Simple decision may bring about huge economic losses to enterprises. Rational use of plentiful experiential knowledge among large numbers of historical cases can improve the accuracy of voyage decision-making. Following the theory of CBR, the paper focuses on the research of CBR-based voyage decision method. Firstly, it analyzes the voyage decision-making process and builds case base and the index. Secondly, it designs effective algorithm of case reasoning, deducing 3 types of experiential input of the voyage decision model. Thirdly, it solves the model to obtain the optimal scheme utilizing all the input above. Finally, it integrates the CBR-based voyage decision
method and the application of Uniwell(.), analyzing and ensuring the validity of the decision method by implementing the operation data.
关键词: 基于案例推理;远洋运输;航次决策
Key words: Case-based Reasoning;ocean shipping;voyage decision
中图分类号:U69文献标识码:A文章编号:1006-4311(2011)05-0204-03

0引言
世界经济全球化给远洋运输事业的发展带来了极大契机。但时至今日,全球航运市场已趋于饱和,日益激烈的竞争形势促使船舶运营者们通过各种途径不断地降低运输成本,航次决策的能力是竞争取胜的关键。