计量经济-国内生产总值影响因素的计量分析.doc

国内生产总值影响因素的计量分析学院名称:专业名称:作者姓名: 学  号: 指导老师: 摘  要自党的十一届三中全会以来,我国进入了改革开放的新时期。30多年来,我国的经济建设取得了令世人瞩目的巨大成就——国内经济持续高速增长,基本实现总体小康,人民生活水平显著提高,综合国力不断增强,国际地位也显著提高。国民经济繁荣给中国的发展带来了昂扬的生命力。而GDP是衡量一国经济增长的重要指标,因此,对国内生产总值影响因素的经济分析研究具有十分重要意义。本文采用经济增长模型和多元线性回归分析方法对1992~2011年国内生产总值的影响因素进行研究,分析了消费、财政支出和进出口对经济发展的影响,建立计量模型,寻求这些变量与GDP的数量关系,进行定量分析以及检验,并根据所得结论提出一些可行性的相关建议。关键词:国内生产总值 消费 财政支出净出口计量分析目  录1前言·····························································32理论综述·······························································································································································33实证模型构建·········································································································································································································································································54模型检验·····························································································································································^2检验··································································································································································································································