船舶风险评估.docx

船舶风险评估学院建工学院专业船舶与海洋工程年级 2016 级姓名施冠羽指导教师余建星 2016 年 12月 12日摘要为了合理进行船舶风险评估,,建立了船舶风险评估的模糊逻辑模型;按照国家标准、规范,并结合经验建立了风险指标的模糊集合、风险矩阵及模糊规则,然后进行了模糊推理,得到了系统的风险等级,并制定了预防风险的措施。结合船舶风险评估的特点,选择适用于船舶定量风险评估的理论方法,建立了层次分析法与模糊综合评估法相结合的风险评估模型。关键词: 船舶工程;模糊逻辑系统;风险评估;模糊规则; 层次分析法 ABSTRACT The paper proposes a new risk assessment method for marine engineering based on the fuzzy - logic system. According to the theory of the fuzzy - logic system ,a fuzzy - logic mode for risk assessment was set up. According to the national standards, rules and experiences, the paper presents the fuzzy risk variables sets, risk matrix and fuzzy rules, then makes fuzzy reasoning, and finds the risk level of the system, and takes some measures to avoid the risk. The theory method of quantitative risk assessment is selected, and the risk assessment model is established by the analytic hierarchy process and the prehensive evaluation method. Key words : marine engineering; fuzzy - logic system; risk assessment; fuzzy rules ; AHP 目录第一章模糊逻辑系统概述................................................................................... 5 模糊规则库................................................................................... 5 模糊推理机................................................................................. 5 模糊化......................................................................................... 5 清晰化........................................................................................... 5 第二章船舶系统风险评估的模糊逻辑模型..................................................... 6 风险指标的模糊集合................................................................. 6 风险评估模型的模糊规则......................................................... 7 船舶系统风险评估的流程......................................................... 7 基于风险等级的系统维护......................................................... 8 第三章船舶风险评估指标........................................................................................... 8