基于财务信息的银行业上市公司股价影响因素研究word论文.docx

摘 要
本文主要研究了影响银行业上市公司股价的公司内部与外部财务信息, 并对银行业上市公司基本面信息与股价之间的关系进行了实证研究。采用了定性分析与定量分析相结合,规范分析和实证分析相结合,实证分析为主的研究方法。
首先,界定了股票、股价和银行业的概念,阐述了国外进行股价变动分析的主要理论和两种基本方法,介绍了股票定价模型并对各种模型进行评价提出本文所使用的模型。
其次,分析了我国上市银行的股价总体状况及走势,通过分析提出我国上市银行股价存在三个问题:股票价格偏离价值,受宏观经济环境影响大及与国际大银行比差距大。
再次,对影响银行业上市公司股价的公司财务信息因素进行理论分析, 这些影响因素包括:上市银行财务状况,货币政策,财政政策,GDP 变动, 物价变动,行业情况以及其他因素。对于除财务状况之外的其他几类因素, 本文统称为财务环境因素。
最后,从财务信息的角度,对银行业上市公司股价影响因素进行了实证研究,这些影响因素包括:盈利能力、资产质量、资本充足度、流动性、公司治理结构、创新能力。运用 中的后退法逐步回归得出一个最优回归方程,回归结果显示:资本润率、拨备覆盖率与股价呈微弱的正相关关系;前两大股东股权比与股价呈较强的正相关关系;权益占资产的比例、第一大股东股权比、非利息净收入占比与股价呈较弱的负相关关系,资产利润率、不良贷款率、存贷比、资本充足率、核心资本充足率和流通股比例与股价之间的相关关系不显著。
通过对实证研究结果的分析,本文提出了针对政府、上市银行和投资者的建议。
关键词上市银行;股价;影响因素;实证研究;财务信息
Abstract
This paper mainly studies on the financial information factors that affect the listed banking stock price and do an empirical study on the relationship between the fundamentals of the listed banking and stock prices. In this paper, I use qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis,and empirical analysis mainly used.
First, this paper introduces the concept of stocks, stock price and banking, describe the main theories of stock price movements and two methods of stock price analysis, puts forward and evaluates various stock pricing models,and clears that the models used in this article.
Secondly, this paper analyzes the total status and trends of the listed banking stock. By analyzing, this paper proposes three problems of the listed banking shares in China: price deviate from the value, the macroeconomic environment have a great impact on stock price and there is great gap between the big international banks and listed banging in China.
Thirdly, this paper has analyzed the theoretical between financial condition factors and the listed banking stock price. These factors include: financial condition of the listed banking, moneytary policies, financial policies, GDP changes, price changes, industry conditions and other factors. Othe