dcf模型在上市公司价值评估中的应用分析.docx

江苏大学工商管理硕士(MBA)论文
摘要
近年来,随着我国证券市场的发展和规范,二级市场不断扩容, 越来越多的投资者进入二级市场。由于我国投资者的整体素质不高、投资理念不成熟,加上由美国次债引发的全球金融动荡,我国的股票市场价格波动剧烈,给投资者造成巨大损失,连专业的基金券商等机构投资者也无一幸免。虽然股票的具体价格受很多因素影响,但当我们把价格曲线拉长发现,它始终是沿其内在价值上下波动。上市公司价值研究的重要性由此显现。
西方发达国家金融业历史悠久,其上市公司价值研究体系也相当成熟。随着我国股权分置改革的推进,很多方法也逐步应用于我国及我国香港资本市场。本文通过对各研究体系的比较,引入DCF(Discount Cash Flow现金流折现)模型,对DCF模型中的各要素和结构方法进
行研究,对DCF模型三个主要参数——自由现金流、折现率、终值在我国应用中的取值,以及DCF模型的实用性及应用范围等进行了探讨。研究认为,作为量化的价值评估工具,DCF模型在目前我国的资本
市场有较好的适用性。它对引导价值投资,完善投资工具,有重要的
意义。
关键词:企业价值;企业价值评估;DCF模型;自由现金流;折现率
ⅡI
江苏大学工商管理硕士(MBA)论文
ABSTRACT
With the development of China stock market and the increasing in number of panies,more and more investors swarmed into stock market in the recent most of Chinese investors are less experience and their investment is the
same time the global financial market is in turbulence aroused by Sub—prime debt in US.
Our stock market is up and down of the investors made huge lose, &v'en the senior institution investors such as funds and stock the price of stocks is influenced by a lot of factors, it’S always up—and-down aline with its real value ifwe spread the price , it’S very importjob to find the real value ofthe
stock.
ne west has a long history in finance market and the value researching system is rather of their approaches are suitable to apply in Chinese and Hongkong’S capital market、Ⅳith the finish of eqity division parison with other kinds of researching system I presented the DCF(Discount
Cash Flowing)model,made a deeply research to each of the essential and structure of
DCF the current situation of China stock market, I adjusted DCF Model’S three essential,which is Free Cash Flow,Discount Rate and Terminal Value. My research show: As a quantifying tool of valuation,DCF Model Can be well
applied in China stock ’S deeply meaningful to guide the valuable investment
and enrich the tools of analysis.
Key words: compa