[优秀论文]城网中长期电力负荷预测模型研究与应用.pdf

上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
城网中长期电力负荷预测模型研究与应用
姓名:郭团军
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:电力系统及其自动化
指导教师:程浩忠
20040101
城网中长期电力负荷预测模型研究与应用

摘要

本文研究了城网中长期电力负荷预测方法首先根据现代中长期
电力负荷预测出现的新特征介绍了国内外的研究现状研究意义并
阐述了常用的各种中长期电力负荷预测模型
其次提出一种基于人工神经网络及模糊算法的负荷密度法通
过对各类负荷进行分类简化并求出最适合于待测小区环境因素的负
荷提高了负荷密度法的预测精度
然后在传统的模糊理论的基础上引入组合最优的概念提出了
一种组合最优模糊预测模型并对该模型进行综合检验结果表明
该方法提高了传统的模糊预测模型的预测精度
最后在提出负荷岛概念的基础上结合上海某城网的负荷
岛划分根据三种不同类型的负荷岛综合小区型负荷岛工业开发
区型负荷岛和集镇型负荷岛的特点提出了适合该负荷岛的预测模
型同时说明了基于负荷岛的城网电力负荷预测对电力网络规划的重
要指导意义

关键词人工神经网络模糊理论负荷密度组合最优负荷岛
Mid-long Term Load Forecasting Models and Its
Application In Urban work

Abstract

This paper introduces some load forecasting models and its application in urban
work. Based on the new characteristic of modern load forecasting theory,
the importance and its development actuality are given briefly, then the modern
mid-long term load forecasting theory is discussed systematically.
Second, the improvement of load density forecasting method of urban work
is presented. Under the condition of insufficient data, classification in the artificial
works and fuzzy theory are used for the load classification and
simplification, pliance of the load to environmental factors can be obtained.
The result of load forecasting calculation of a certain area shows this method is
effective.
Third, combined optimum model of mid-long term load forecasting based on fuzzy
theory has been introduced in the paper. Based on minimizing squares sum of the
residues, combined model has been proposed and quadratic program can be used to
get solution. Example shows the method can get more accurate results.
At last, this paper considers the load island as a planning unit of the urban power
network. Based on the load island conception, three different load islands are
introduced and the appropriate methods are selected. And an urban work in
Shanghai is taken as an example of load island forecasting. This paper also shows the
signi