美国的低通胀原因及启示.doc

美国的低通胀原因及启示
内容提要:美国巨额贸易逆差为低通胀做出了贡献;虚拟经济的繁荣平抑了物价波动;劳动生产率的提高与股票期权制、员工持股制抑制工资上涨压力,割裂了物价与工资互动的基础;而强势美元政策与知识经济的运行规律本身具有紧缩效应。美国低通胀的经验,可以关注I<S形成的紧缩缺口,重视虚拟经济对物价的影响,适当
采取扩张性政策,,而不必过分担心通胀。
关键词:美国经济低通胀贸易逆差虚拟经济新经济强势美元
The Causes and Revelations of the Lower Inflation Rate in American Economy
Abstract: In the 1990s,the trade deficit has made much contribution to the low inflation in . .The prosperous fictitious economy restrains the price fluctuation. The high production efficiency and the practices of stock option and employee stockholder have stopped the positive relations of the wages and the price, which makes Philips Curve cease to be effective. Strong dollar policy and knowledge economy can also make deflation effect to some extent. The low inflation rate in that we should pay more attention to the inflation problem in China, where the deflation gap cause by investment below saving doesn’t eliminate. Therefore, China should appropriately adopt expanded policy to stimulate the economic growth, and should not worry about the problem of inflation. Meanwhile, the effect, which the fictitious economy has on the prices, should not be ignored.
Key Words: American economy, the lower inflation rate, trade deficit, fictitious economy ,new economy,strong Dollar,
根据主流经济学派的观点,失业率与通货膨胀之间存在此消彼长反向关系,即菲利普斯曲线(Philips Curve)广泛
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存在。过去近30年来,-%%-6%的失业率作为dd