我国汽车保有量影响因素的实证分析.doc

摘要
我国经济的快速发展为私人汽车提供了巨大的发展空间,同时汽车保有量的大幅增加势必对土地、能源和环境带来巨大压力,这就需要对影响私人汽车发展的主要因素进行分析,对其保有量的发展趋势做出科学判断。本文根据1985年至2008年国内各项经济指标,运用EVIEWS、SPSS计量软件和Microsoft Excel对各种因素进行分析,给出了一个适用于短期预测的计量经济学模型及进行各项检验的详细过程,并说明了根据此模型进行未来预测的可行性。最后,根据汽车保有量对于我国经济的重要作用提出了几点政策建议,明确汽车产业发展与国家可持续发展之间的关系。
关键词:汽车保有量汽车产量增长率影响因素实证分析
Abstract
The rapid economic development of our country for private cars with a huge development space and the auto possession increase certainly will to the land, the energy and environment huge pressure, SO we need to analyze the main factors of the influence the development private car and the trend of the possession of a scientific judgment. This essay according to inland all the economic indicators 1985 to 2008 years, using and Microsoft Excel measuring software to analyze all sorts of factors, and presented an applicable to the short-term econometrics model and carry out the inspection detailed process, even illustrates the model for prediction of the future feasibility. Finally, according to the auto possession to our country economy the important role of the proposed some policy mendations, clear the automotive industry development and the relationship between the sustainable developments of the country.
Keywords: Auto possession car Car production Growth rate Empirical analysis
目录
摘要……. 1
一、 绪论 4
研究背景 4
研究意义 4
二、 模型的选取和变量的选择 5
变量选取 5
…………………………………………………
………6
三、法定准备金主要要素的关联度双变量分析 8
Y对b1、X2回归……………………………………………………………………….…..8
Y和X3的关联度分析……………………………………………………………….……9
Y与x4的关联度分析………………………………………………………………………10.
12
四、法定准备金主要要素的关联度分析………………………………………………………..18
Y与X2、 X4的关联度分析…………………………………………………………….18
Y与X4、X5的关联度分析………………………………………………………………20
五、对数方程 22
六、模型多重共线性诊断及补救 23
模型多重共线性诊断…………………………………………………………………….23
模型多重共线性的补救…………………………………………………………………..23
七、模型异方差诊断及补救 28
八、模型自相关诊断及补救 30
(1) 诊断…………………………………………………………………………………………30
(2) 补救…………………………………………………………………………………….…..33
九、关于虚拟变量 35