nomura-20090622-20页-英文-global strategy weekly.pdf

Global Equity Research

Global
PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
Global Strategy Global Strategy Weekly
Consolidation, correction or cause for concern?
Market
Commentary/Strategy

„ We do not think the recent mini-correction in global equities is the portent of a
more serious decline.
„ Firstly, the drop in risk appetite evident in the equity market is not apparent in other
Global Strategy Team* assets – credit markets in particular have been very well behaved, while implied
volatility and the yen exchange rate suggest benign risk conditions prevail.
„ Secondly, cyclical indicators such as the Baltic Freight Index modity
prices continue to rise, while analysts have recently been upgrading slightly more

estimates than they have been cutting.

„
While issuance may be a dampening influence in the short term, we doubt it will
have a more lasting effect given the still very high levels of cash held, and the still

rather encouraging reception received in secondary markets for both corporate
equity and debt when new issues occur.


„ Lastly, and perhaps most importantly of all, there is evidence that the aggressive

policy actions taken by the authorities have had a simulative effect on the fabled
animal spirits.


„ Even in the most leveraged economies, and in those markets most affected by the

withdrawal of credit, there are signs the buyers are returning. This is crucially
important because while policymakers can attempt to influence private sector

decisions, they cannot guarantee a response.


„ In short, we think this recent pull-back in the equity market is just that, and we
expect the uptrend to resume again soon.
*Please see page 17


ANY AUTHORS NAMED ON THIS REPORT ARE RESEARCH ANALYSTS UNLESS OTHERWISE
INDICATED.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 18 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
June 19, 2009 BEGINNING ON PAGE 18
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