Four Future Scenarios for Higher Education.pdf

[FOUR FUTURE SCENARIOS
FOR HIGHER EDUCATION
What plays out in the future depends on decisions taken today, which can critically narrow
the room for manœuvre over time. Hence the importance of factoring the long term into
decision-making in higher education.
This paper presents four scenarios for higher education systems developed by the OECD
Secretariat as part of its ongoing project on the future of higher education. The University
Futures project is designed to inform and facilitate strategic change to be made by
government decision-makers and other key stakeholders in higher education.
Scenarios are not meant to predict the future. They can be defined as “consistent and
coherent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures that reflect different perspectives on
past, present, and future developments, which can serve as a basis for action”. They are
tools for thinking about the future, which will be shaped partly through deliberate strategies
and actions, partly by factors beyond the control of decision-makers.
Scenarios can be a useful way of drawing upon imagination in a structured and serious way
to think creatively on matters we often take for granted and to look at issues in a holistic way
rather than in isolation. They help us to get out of our everyday routines and to address
questions such as:
− Where are we going?
− Where s