钟俊的毕业论文.doc

教学单位经济与管理学院
学生学号 060514241
本科毕业论文(设计)
题目湖北省农村工业化与城镇化关系的
实证分析
学生姓名钟俊
专业名称经济学
指导教师胡金林
2009年12月10日
湖北省农村工业化与城镇化关系的实证分析
摘要:本文利用湖北省1978-2008年历史时间序列数据对湖北省农村工业化与城镇化的关系进行了实证分析。用城镇化率,即城镇人口占总人口的比例衡量城镇化水平,用产值结构指标第二产业产值比重、第三产业产值比重和就业结构指标第二产业就业比重、第三产业就业比重衡量工业化水平,得出的基本结论是:湖北省农村工业化与城镇化是相互促进、互相联系的关系,两者相互依存、共同发展。其中,只用第二产业产值比重和第二产业就业比重衡量湖北省工业化水平,工业化与城镇化之间的相互作用不是很明显;用非农就业比重衡量工业化水平,工业化与城镇化之间具有一定的相互作用;用非农产值比重衡量工业化水平,工业化与城镇化之间的相互作用非常明显。进而提出相关措施与建议,要正确处理城镇化与工业化之间的互动关系,切实完成新型工业化模式多重任务,逐步提高城镇化水平,走城镇化与工业化协调发展的中国式道路。
关键词:工业化; 城镇化;关系;实证分析;协调发展
The Empirical Analysis on Rural Industrialization
and Urbanization of Hubei Province
Abstract: By referencing a decade of historical time series data from 1978 to 2008, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between rural industrialization and urbanization of Hubei province. URB, which means the urban population proportion of the total population, is used to measure the level of urbanization. The Output Value Structural is used to indicate the proportion of secondary industry output value and the tertiary industry output value. And the Employment Structure is used to show the proportion of secondary industry employment and tertiary industry employment. By using the three indexes above to measure the level of industrialization, we can get the basic conclusion: the rural industrialization and urbanization of Hubei province, not only can they have promotion and relationship with each other, but also mutual dependence mon development. By doing experiments, we have tried three propotions below to measure the level of industrialization and the interaction between the industrialization and urbanization: If we only use the proportion of secondary industry output value and secondary industry employment, the affect is not so obvious; if we can use the proportion of non-agricultural employment, the affect is some kind of clear; then if we can change to use the proportion of non-agricultural output value, the affect is then very