我国房地产投资周期波动的特征基于主成分分析方法....doc

第5组财政、税收、投资、贸易
我国房地产投资周期波动的特征*本文研究得到国家自然科学基金项目(项目号70673009)和国家社科基金项目(项目号06 BJY012)的资助。
——基于主成分分析方法构建我国房地产投资景气指数
梁云芳高铁梅
(东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院辽宁大连 116025)
摘要:房地产业作为我国经济发展的先导产业和支柱产业,其周期波动将直接影响稳运行,因此对房地产业的周期波动进行监测预测具有十分重要的现实意义。本文利用主成分分析方法构建了我国房地产投资的景气指数,结果表明目前我国房地产投资对政策调控反应灵敏,导致周期长度不稳定。进一步,本文讨论了房地产投资周期与宏观经济周期的关系,发现二者的关系在2002年前后发生了结构性的变化,房地产业在国民经济中作为支柱产业的影响越来越大;而且房地产投资一致合成指数是通货膨胀一致合成指数的先行指标,通过比较可以为政府及相关部门准确判断房地产发展形势、制定相关的宏观经济政策提供依据,为投资者的理性投资和决策提供基础。
关键字:房地产投资;周期波动;景气指数;通货膨胀
JEL分类号:F29,
The Research of Chinese Real Estate Investment Cyclical Fluctuation
───Constructing Chinese Real Estate Investment Business Index
with the ponent Analysis
Yunfang Liang Tiemei Gao
(Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian, 116025, )
Abstract:The real estate industry is usually taken as the foundation and mainstay industry of the economy, and its fluctuation affects the economic movement directly. So it has the extremely important practical significance to monitor and forecast the real estate industry’s cyclical fluctuation. In this paper, we constructed the business index of the real estate investment with the ponents Analysis Method. The analysis showed the real estate investment was keen to the macro policy. Further, paring the posite index of the real estate investment with that of the macro economy, we found that the effect of the real estate industry taken as the mainstay industry was more and more remarkable since 2002. Furthermore, we found the posite index of the real estate investment was a leading indicator of the inflation. We hope these conclusions can be as the basis of the government making policy and investor rationally investing.
Key words: Real Estate Investment, Cyclical Fluctuation, Business Index,Inflation
JEL Classification:F29,
作者简介:
梁云芳(1978—), 女(汉族),山西省阳城县,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院讲师,经济学博士,主要研究方向为房地产经济学、经济周期波动。电话:********** / 0411-84711085;电子邮箱:yunfangliang@;联系地址:辽宁省大连市东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院(116025)。
高铁梅(1951—), 女(汉族),江苏,东北财经大学