隐性保险, 市场约束与我国银行业改革改革隐性保险市.doc

隐性保险、市场约束与我何广文
(中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100094)
摘要:文章运用1994-2003年间面板数据,在引入国家隐性保险虚拟变量后,通过估计我国14家商业银行实际利率对银行风险变化的反应,实证地检验了我国银行业的市场约束情况,结果发现:无论是国有银行还是(上市的)股份制银行,均没有市场约束存在的显著证据,这就证明了隐性保险是存在的,同时,隐性保险的范围不仅仅是国有银行,而是几乎所有的银行。这对我国银行业改革的启示在于,必须尽快取消国家隐性保险,建立符合国情的显性存款保险制度。
关键词: 隐性保险市场约束流动比率股权比率利润率
Implicit Insurance, Market Discipline and the Reform of Banking in China
ZHANG Zheng-ping, HE Guang-wen
(School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100094 )
Abstract: With a panel data of mercial banks from1994 to 2003 in China, after introducing the dummy variable of official implicit insurance, this paper try to test these banks’ market discipline through their reflection of the real interest rates to the risks. Our empirical results suggest: neither the four sate-owned banks or the mercial banks could find the significant evidence of market discipline, which seems to show the exist of official implicit insurance, at the same time, the official implicit insurance not only covers the sate-owned banks, but also all the other banks in China. The implication for the reform of the Chinese banking is that China should give up the official implicit insurance as early as could, and set up the explicit deposit insurance system fitting to Chinese situations.
Key words: Implicit Insurance; Market Discipline; Equity Ratio; Liquidity Ratio; Profit Ratio;
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