珞珈青年学者经济与管理论坛.pdf

珞珈青年学者经济与管理论坛
系列论文之三十六
Luojia Young Scholars Seminar on Economics and
Management
Working Paper
工农业关系与经济发展:计划经济时代的历史计量学再考察
――与姚洋、郑东雅商榷


孙圣民∗





Relation between the Industry and Agriculture Sectors and Economic Development:
The Chinese Planning Economy Revisited in Cliometrics

Sun Shengmin
The Center of Economic Research, Shandong University
Abstract:There are some mistakes in dealing with the relation between the industry and the
agriculture sectors during the period of Chinese planning economy. China’s heavy-industry development
by the support of agriculture maybe is right, the method adopted maybe is wrong. The paper finds the
agriculture is inefficient and the industrial elite also didn’t get the more benefits from the agriculture sector
during mune System. The Pareto Efficiency can improve and it is Political Failure. Experiential
analysis based on the Cliometrics support the conclusion. If the system of land private ownership that
existed from 1952 to 1956 were carried out from 1957 to 1978, the gross value of agricultural output
would increase 1/3 at least, and the tax from the agriculture sector taking out by the government in order to
develop the industry sector would increase % or % at least. The lost of social saving in the
Commune System is double to the gain of industry transferring from the agriculture in fact. All of these are
the cost of the Political Failure. We also make clear why the household responsibility system leads to the
reform in 1978.
Key Words:Relation Between the Industry and Agriculture Sectors; Institution; Political Failure;
Cliometrics ;
JEL Classification: N55 Q15 Q18




∗孙圣民(1975-),经济学博士、历史学博士后,山东大学经济研究院(中心)、山东大学历史学博士后科研流动站。
邮编:250100,电子邮箱:shengminsun@。通信地址:济南市山大南路 27 号山东大学(东校区)新校山
东大学经济研究院(中心)。手机:**********。本文感谢第四十三批中国博士后科学基金、山东省博士后创新项目
专项资金(编号 200802037)和山东省软科学研究项目(编号 2008RKB063)资助。
本文是 2008 年第八届中国青年经济学者论坛(厦门大学)和中国青年经济学家联谊会(Y