不确定性下的我国城镇居民消费行为研究.pdf

湘潭大学
硕士学位论文
不确定性下的我国城镇居民消费行为研究
姓名:胡德宝
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:产业经济学
指导教师:李伍荣;柳思维
20060506
摘要

自 1936 年凯恩斯首先提出消费函数以来有关消费问题的研究不断深入成果也
层出不穷消费问题成为各国经济学家在宏观经济研究中的重要内容
继凯恩斯的绝对收入假说之后西方经济学家又提出了相对收入假说随机游走假
说生命周期理论和持久收入假说等一系列理论这些成果在实践中得到比较普遍的应
用但是回顾一下这些理论就会发现这些理论均以确定性和完美资本市场为假设
而事实上改革开放以来特别是建立市场经济体制以来我国的经济转轨加速使得
消费者面临着许多未来的不确定性同时因受外在条件的限制他们也难以自由借贷
消费者的消费行为出现了变异是传统消费理论所解释不了的西方消费理论中的预防
性储蓄和流动性约束理论对研究转轨时期我国城镇居民消费问题有很强的借鉴意义和
实践价值
由于决策者的有限理性和改革的“非帕累托”性质使得改革的制度安排总是过渡性
的带来人们制度不确定性预期本文为我国城镇居民在制度变迁过程中的不确定性提
供了制度经济学解释深入剖析了城镇居民收入支出的不确定性以及流动性约束增强
了他们的不确定性在此基础上应用不确定性下的消费模型利用我国的数据得出
的实证结果表明我国城镇居民储蓄性动机很强并通过比较得到他们面临支出的不确
定性大于收入的不确定性的结论说明目前我国经济发展中出现的高储蓄和消费不振与
之相关依据研究结果为我国居民降低不确定性扩大消费提出了相应的政策建议

关键词城镇居民不确定性储蓄消费支出



I
Abstract

After Keynes proposed consumer function firstly in 1936, the research on consumption
was continuously done, and the fruit was enormous. The research on consumption is
ing the main contents in macroeconomics research by economists.
After Keynes’s absolute e hypothesis, western proposed relative e
hypothesis, random walking hypothesis, life cycle theory and permanent e hypothesis in
ession, these theories were pervasively used in practice. However, if we look forward to
them, we will find that, they are based on the hypothesis of certainty and perfect market. In
fact, from the opening and innovation, especially after market economy institution was built
in China, the economy transition speeds up, which makes the consumers confront lots of
uncertainty in the future, and the consumers can’t have mortgage freely, for the sake of
outside limited conditions. So the consumers’ behaviors of our country have got variations,
which is can’t be explained by the traditional theory. The precautionary savings theory and the
liquidity constraint theory in western consumer theory have the very reference and practice
value if it’s applied to research the consumption of urban residents in our country.
Because of the “n