Economic Growth, Population, and Human Capital.doc

Economic Growth, Population, and Human Capital
Economic Growth, Population, and Human Capital
Gary S1>. Becker
University of Chicago
June 4, 2005
Beijing, China
China Center for Economic Research
GDP per Capita
China, France, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom and United States
1820 - 2000
Source: Madison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD, 2003.
Gross School Enrolment in Secondary and Tertiary Education
China
1990, 2001


Tertiary Education


Secondary Education
2001
1990
Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank.
The China/West European Dichotomy
1–2001 AD
7,
4,
19,256
3,583

1,
2001
1,

4,579
439


1950


3,458
552
261

1913


1,204
600
133
381
1820


771
600

103
1500


676
600

72
1400

60
593
600

100
1300


400
450

59
1000


450
450


1
West Europe
China
West Europe
China
West Europe
China
GDP
(billions 1990 int. $)
Per Capita GDP
(1990 int. $)
Population
(millions)
Source: Madison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD, 2003.
Malthusian Economy
e per Capita
Population Growth
Population
I*
N’
S
S
D
D’
D’
D
N*
0
Malthusian Model
ln n(t) = a + b ln w(t)
ln w(t) = α- β ln N(t)