Practical Business Forecasting [Blackwell] Evans, Michael K. 2003..pdf

PRACTICAL BUSINESS FORECASTING
PRACTICAL BUSINESS
FORECASTING
Michael K. Evans
Blackwell
Publishers
© Michael K. Evans 2003
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First published 2002 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd, a Blackwell pany
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ISBN 0-631-22065-8 (hbk)
ISBN 0-631-22066-6 (pbk)
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To Sophie Evans Brill
CONTENTS
Acknowledgments xv
Preface xvi
PART I 1
1. Choosing the Right Type of Forecasting Model 3
Introduction 3
Statistics, Econometrics, and Forecasting 4
The Concept of Forecasting Accuracy:
Compared to What? 5
Structural Shifts in Parameters 8
Model Misspecification 9
Missing, Smoothed, Preliminary, or urate
Data 10
Changing Expectations by Economic Agents 13
Policy Shifts 14
Unexpected Changes in Exogenous Variables 15
Incorrect Assumptions about Exogeneity 17
Error Buildup in Multi-period Forecasts 17
Alternative Types of Forecasts 18
Point or Interval 18
Absolute or Conditional 19
Alternative Scenarios Weighed b