区域经济增长的影响因素.ppt

6 Regional Economic Growth and development Demand –based theory The factor of Regional Economic Growth区域经济增长的主要影响因素分解内因外因需求供给区内需求区外需求区内供给区外供给区域产业结构、区域布局结构、区域生产要素流动(资本、技术、人力资本等)消费、储蓄与投资生产要素投入、相关生产技术、生产组织管理、经济规模性等因素分析: –based throry(需求拉动的区域经济增长理论)Export-base theory (North)进口替代理论投入产出理论自产自销理论等Export-base theory (需求拉动的区域经济增长理论)1. Export-base theory (North)2. Tiebout’s response 3. economic base theory :乘数理论4. Compared to Jane Jacobs’“supply region”: 战后关心工业化和增长—— and Fisher, 1949, “Research in Regional Economic Growth,”?The self –sufficient subsistence economy ?With improvement in transport :trade and local specialization ? Agricultural crops from extensive grazing to intensive cultivation ?Industrialition ?Specialization in tertiary industries producing for export 运输成本的作用(Walter Isard,1951)Historically we find that reduced transport rates have tended :(1)to transform a scattered ,ubiquitous pattern of production into an increasingly concentrated one .(2)to effect progressive differentiation and selection between sites with superior and inferior resources and trade Rostow, W W. The Stages of Economic Growth: A munist Manifesto, society stage 为起飞创造前提条件阶段: 家庭手工业/商业,savings/capital, entrepreneurs/investment3. 起飞阶段(take off) conditions: 1) 生产性投资提高2)有工业部门担任的主导产业高速发展3)有利于现代产业扩张的政治,社会和制度结构4. 成熟阶段5. 高额消费阶段6. 追求生活质量阶段Douglas North (1955): “Location theory and regional economic growth”1)批判区位理论和区域增长理论: 关于区位的模型和关于增长的描述都有问题a. 建立区域发展的阶段论(stage theory),但他们的阶段序列和经济史却是断裂的--建立在欧洲封建/自给自足型经济的假设,但是,在美国从未如此:从一开始,区域的经济活动(采集资源,生产,贸易)就是直接联系世界市场的。b. 并没有解释区域增长的动力。--工业化的假设误导了对区域发展的分析