股息贴现模型-PPT（荐）.ppt

Deriving the Dividend Discount Model in the Intermediate 金融学?跨期消费模型研究不同时间人们的消费行为,涉及时间因素的的消费和储蓄。即消费者不必将每期的收入用光,他可以选择储蓄,也可以选择贷款。其预算约束线的斜率与利率有关,为-(1+R) ,R是利率,然后再此预算约束现的情况下研究消费者偏好。分析的结果一般为:利率提高, 人们选择少消费,更倾向于储蓄,利率降低,人们会多消费,倾向于借贷。?那它的方程是什么样子的? ?假设只有两期,C是消费, M是收入: C2=M2+(1+R)(m1- c1)1 ,2都是角标。? we employed a standard two-period model with consumers maximizing utility U(C1,C2). e (I) in both periods is known, the price of a unit of consumption(C) in both periods is equal to one, and the individual can borrow or lend at the same risk-free interest rate (r f ). ? The maximizing agent has two budget constraints over the two periods. ? In the first period, I 1 = C 1 + B where B is the dollar value of the bonds purchased. ? In the second period, I 2 + (1 + r f )B = C 2 FIGURE 1 Intertemporal consumption model. ? From the first budget constraint, B = I 1? C 1 and substituting that into the second budget constraint, this gives the equation for the budget constraint line as C 2 = I 2 + (1 + r f )(I 1? C 1) ? The equilibrium condition is then straightforward to derive as follows: ? The marginal rate of substitution (MRS) is the tradeoff of current consumption for future consumption that leaves the individual indifferent; put differently, the minimum amount necessary to receive in the future to give up a unit of consumption today. ? As long as the return (1+r f ) is greater than the MRS of current and future consumption, the individual will postpone consumption and increase his utility. The individual will continue giving up current consumption precisely to the point where the return of the bond is just sufficient pensate him for waiting. ? The important aspect is the concept of diminishing MRS, that with each additional unit of postponed current consumption the individual requires a higher return (slope of indifference curve gets steeper as one moves from right to left). ? In a finance class, the student typically learns present value (NPV) criter