2030世界能源展望.pdf

January 2013
Contents
Introduction
Global energy trends
Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel
Implications
Energy Outlook 2030
© BP 2013
Introduction
Global energy trends
Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel
Implications
Energy Outlook 2030
© BP 2013
Population, e and energy growth
Population GDP Primary energy
Billion Trillion $2011 PPP Billion toe
8 100 12
OECD OECD OECD
Non-OECD Non-OECD non-OECD
6 75 9
4 50 6
2 25 3
0 0 0
1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
© BP 2013
Industrialisation drives energy growth
By region By primary use By fuel
Billion toe Billion toe Billion toe
18 18 18
Renew.*
15 15 15 Hydro
Nuclear
12 12 Power 12
generation
CoalCoal
9 Non-NonOECD-OECD 9 9
6 6 Industry 6 GasGas
OECD
3 OECD 3 Other 3
Transport OilOil
0 0 0
1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
*Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030
© BP 2013
The power sector leads primary energy growth
Growth by sector and region, Growth by sector and fuel,
2 011-2030 2 011-2030
Billion toe Billion toe
3 3 Hydro
RoW Nuclear
2 2
Renew.
Middle East
1 1 Electricity
Gas
China &
0 0
India Biofuels
Oil
-1 OECD -1
Other
Other
Power
Power Coal
Industry
Industry
Transport
Transport
Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power
Energy Outlook 2030
© BP 2013
Emerging economies dominate energy production
Billion toe Billion toe
18 18
FSU
15 15
S&C America
12 12 N. America
9 9 Middle East
Non-OECD
6 Non-OECD 6 Europe
Asia Pacific
3 OECD 3
OECD Africa
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Outlook 2030
© BP 2013
Fuel shares and energy prices
Shares of world primary energy Energy prices
$2011/boe
50%
Oil 120 Oil - Brent
Gas - basket
40% 100
Coal Coal - basket
80
30%
60
20% Gas
40
10% Hydro 20
Nuclear
0% Renewables* 0
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025