measuring the progress and impacts of decarbonising british electricity iain staffell资料.pdf

该【measuring the progress and impacts of decarbonising british electricity iain staffell资料 】是由【四婆子】上传分享，文档一共【13】页，该文档可以免费在线阅读，需要了解更多关于【measuring the progress and impacts of decarbonising british electricity iain staffell资料 】的内容，可以使用淘豆网的站内搜索功能，选择自己适合的文档，以下文字是截取该文章内的部分文字，如需要获得完整电子版，请下载此文档到您的设备，方便您编辑和打印。:..EnergyPolicy102(2017)463–475ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectEnergyPolicyjournalhomepage:ate/enpolMeasuringtheprogressandimpactsofdecarbonisingBritishelectricityMARKIainSta?ellCentreforEnvironmentalPolicy,ImperialCollegeLondon,UnitedKingdomARTICLEINFOABSTRACTKeywords:Britain'sambitiouscarbontargetsrequirethatelectricitybeimmediatelyandaggressivelydecarbonised,soitisElectricityreassuringtoreportthatelectricitysectoremissionshavefallen46%inthethreeyearstoJune2016,:%peryearduetoe?ciencygainsandmildwinters;gasdoublingitsRenewablesshareto60%offossilgenerationduetothecarbonprice?oor;andthedramaticuptakeofwind,solarandPowersectorbiomasswhichnowsupplyupto45%:importedelectricityandbiomasswouldadd5%and2%,,?exiblenuclearandintermittentrenewablesisrapidlyshrinking,'s?rstnegativepowerprices,thehighestwinterpeakpricesforsixyears,,2015a).,thiswillrequirean11%reductioneachyearofthisdecade,followedbyTheBritishelectricitysystememitsaround12,000tonnesofCO29%,as,whichsaw100TWh/yearofcoalambitiousnationalcarbontargets:a50%reductionversus1990levelsgeneration(and~40milliontonnesoffuel)replacedbyhigh-e?ciencyby2025,and80%by2050(ClimateChangeAct,C,2015a).GTs)(MacLeayetal.,2016).,,whichmanywaystogenerateelectricitywithoutcarbonemissions,binedtogivea46%reductionincarbonemissionsinthearecost-e?ectiverelativetotheoptionsinheat,:IntheirFifthCarbonBudget,mitteeonClimateChange(CCC)mendsthatcarbonemissionsfromthepowersectormust?Demandissteadilydecliningby1–2%peryear;bereducedby75%oftheir2015levelsby2030,andalmosteliminated?Coalisbeingdisplacedbygas,importedelectricityandrenewables,by2050(?95%)(CCC,2015a).Thetargetsinothersectorsaremoresoitssharehasfallenbythree-quarterssince2012;modest,at20–40%reductionby2030and25?80%by2050,withlow-?Theshareofrenewablesisgrowingrapidly:wind,solarandbiomasscarbonelectricityprovidingathirdofthesereductionsby2030,andnowprovideone-?,2015b).:simultaneouslyincreasingtheshareofrenewables,Forexample,demandhasbeendepressedinrecentyearsduetoabiomassandnucleargeneration;essionofmildwinters,whichcannotbeexpectedtocontinuegasgeneration;S)beyondtheinde??uencedbyR&Dphase;andreducingdemandthroughe?'sneedtoimportgas,theArabSpringreducedcarbonintensityfromaround500gCO2perkWhofelectricitysuppliesfromtheMiddleEastandAmericancoalprovidedacheapconsumed,asexperiencedoverthelastdecade,to200?250g/-mailaddress:?******@://dx./.;Receivedinrevisedform10November2016;Accepted22December2016Availableonline03January20170301-4215/?(/licenses/BY//).:..?ellEnergyPolicy102(2017)463–475Systemoperationvariesdramaticallyfromhourtohourbecauseofthejust-in--timewithlimitedrecoursetostorageanddemand-sidemanagement(GreenandSta?ell,2016).Withanincreas-ingin?exible,semi-controllableandunpredictable,'selectricitysystemisapproachingseveralcriticaltippingpoints:?weather-dependentrenewablessupplyingmorethan50%ofinstan-taneousdemand;?wholesalepricesfallingnegativeinbothsummer(duetosolar)andwinter(duetowind);?demandbelowthelevelofmust-runoutput(nuclearandCHP).,highlightingtheaverageyear-on-,2015a;MacLeayThesewillnodoubttestthecapabilitiesofNationalGridtocontroletal.,2016).thesystem,andmaynecessitatenewmarketsorservices,,analysetheirimpactsontheelectricitysector,-,coveringdemand,supply,,?orttopromotetransparencyandunderstanding,thedatabehindallthe??owismeasuredinkW/MW/GW;volumesofenergyarepricesrose50%(,2016b).measuredinMWh/GWh/,,-tricityistreatedaszerocarbonwhencalculatingnationalemissionsThechemicalenergycontainedwithinthefuelsistypicallymea-inventories,whichconvenientlyneglectsthefactBritainnow“exports”suredinMJ/GJ/TJ,orasmilliontonnesofoilequivalent(1MTOEaround3%=41,868TJ=),ormillionBritishthermalunits(1MMBTUconventionimpliesthatimportingallofBritain'selectricityisavalid=10therms=)(Sta?ell,2011).Thisenergycanbeexpressedroutetodecarbonisation,eventhoughFrenchandDutchfossilpowerrelativetohigherheatingvalue(HHV)whichisthetruethermody-?nitionofenergycontent,orlowerheatingvalue(LHV)whichThegrowingshareofbiomassampli??cienciesappear5–11%higherbustingwoodpelletswouldadd13%towhenpresentedagainstLHV,whichremainstheindustryconvention3;thesector'stotaliftheywerenotavoidedthroughsustainableforestryhowever,mendedbytheIEA(,2010).plex,Electricitydemandequalsgenerationminuslossesinthetransmis-theknock-pletelyconcealedwhensionanddistributionsystem,andmaybede?nedtoincludeexportsand/orin-?,outputofapowerstation,theextremes,notatthecentre,(Ofgem,2011).3LHVwasmorepracticalinthe19thcentury,ouldnotbeputto1TherearealsotwointerconnectorstotheRepublicofIrelandandNorthernIreland,workwhenburningsulphur-richcoalduetosulphuricacidformation(Sta?ell,2010).,:..?ellEnergyPolicy102(2017)463–475Supplyanddemandaremeasuredinrealtimeby?,pilenationalgreenhousegasemissionsstatisticswhicharenowintegratedwithconsumers,makingtheminvisibletonationalarebrokendowntosectorallevel,?edasembeddedrenewables(predominantlypowerstations(,2016c).Theseareavailableatannualandsmallwindandsolar),andauto-generators(CHPenginesandotherquarterlyresolution,andsocannotbeusedtoestimatethereal-timegeneratorsusedinindustrialandotherfacilities).carbonemissionsorthecontributionofindividualgeneratingtechnol-,asthisdiscountsmuchofBritain'swindSuchcalculationsrequirevaluesforthecarbonintensityofeachcapacityandallofitssolarcapacity,bothofwhichhavegrowngeneratortype,binedwiththehalf-hourlyElexonsigni??c,?shorewindfarmsareconnectedtothetransmissionssystemandofelectricityproduced(orequallykg/MWh),anddependonthecarbonthusaremeteredbyNationalGrid;generatinge?–Therearealsonumerouscaptivepowerstations,orauto-genera-2015(Janes,2005;MacLeayetal.,2016).E?cienciesfornuclear,coaltors,usedinindustrialandotherlargefacilitiestomeeton-siteandgasaregivendirectlyinTable#;however,-generators,whichwereestimatede?ciencyforallgasgeneration(%)(%ofgrossdemand)(Bo?mannandSta?ell,2015).ThesehaveUsingdatafrom#(grossproduc-workastheymeeton-sitetionminusself-consumption)wasdividedbyfuelinputforeachdemandandarenotcentrallymetered,makingtheme??,therearenowiththevaluesfrom#±%-hourlyestimatesofthe?eet'soutputtoworkfrom,andsoauto-GTandOCGT(),ande?(left),thee?cienciesforthemaingeneratortypeshavebeenin?uenceofauto-generators,basedontwogeneraltrendsovertherelativelystable;whereasthoseforoilandbiomassvarysigni?cantlyperiod2000–2014(MacLeayetal.,2016).Firstly,auto-±%ofthemeteredsupplyfrommajorOilisconsumedwhenstartingupcoalplants,butthiscannotbepowerproducers;andsecondly,positionofauto-generatorshasseparatedfromconsumptioninoilgeneratorswithintheDUKESdata,been65±3%‘conventionalthermal’(coal,oil,biomass)andthewhichpullsdowntheapparente?ciencyofoil-?,auto-,sobothtocontributeanadditional17TWhgenerationfromcoaland9TWhutilisationande?ciencyhaveimprovedsteadilyoverthelasttwentyfromgasin2015,?,andhasMTfrommajorpowerproducers).5improvednotablysince2013whenthe?rstunitsofDraxandTheconventionsusedinthispaperareasfollows:??Fuelinputsande?cienciesaremeasuredagainstHHV;percentagepoints(absolute)witheachdoublingofannualoutput.?Demandisthetotalloadonthesystem(includingexports,storageThee?);60%GTand>40%?ofplantself-consumption;higherheatingvalue(HHV);theindustryconventionof