2018全球外汇交易策略报告.pdf

 Global Research 13 December 2017




Global Macro Strategy Global Macro Strategy

Global FX Atlas: Top FX trades for 2018 Global

Our top FX trades for 2018 Daniel Waldman
We recently published our Top Macro Trades for 2018, organized across five key Strategist
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themes. By theme, our key FX trades are: 1) Room to grow (long BRL and CLP versus
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short JPY and USD); 2) Gradual policy normalization (short EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK
volatility); 3) European growth is broadening (long CZK and PLN versus short CHF and Themos Fiotakis
Strategist
USD); 4) China rebalancing (long NZD versus short TWD); and 5) Having our cake and
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eating it too (long USD/CAD). +44-20-7567 7215
Trade #1: Long BRL and CLP versus short JPY and USD Lefteris Farmakis
Our analysis shows that BRL and CLP are likely to perform well in an environment of Strategist
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broadening global growth. Both trade cheap versus our estimates of fair value despite +44-20-7568 8305
improving fundamentals and tailwinds from modities. We split the funding of
this position between USD and JPY. We see limited impact of incremental Fed hikes on Manik Narain
Strategist
the USD, and a slow-moving BoJ should lead to further JPY weakness. @
Trade #2: Short EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK vol +44-20-7567 3218
Although FX vol is generally low, there are still opportunities to sell it. NOK and SEK are Amr El Sherif, CFA
prime examples due to the increased importance of FX for inflation (and by extension Strategist
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policy) in small open economies. This makes large moves in such currencies difficult, as +44-20-7568 6265
currency strength (or weakness) lowers (or raises) inflation quickly, thus working against
the original rationale for the currency move. EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK are good places to Roque Montero
Strategist
trade this dynamic with recent moves offering good entry points