麦格理-全球-宏观经济-自由主义秩序终结：反全球化的趋势;但没有战争-4页.pdf

GLOBAL The end of liberal order
Global Merchandise Trade growth to GDP
growth (x) - ~2x in 1983-2000; ~1x since De-globalization drift; but no wars, yet
Investors continue to search for order; there is none
. Investors seem to be striving to find order and pattern in a world that
has neither. It is only human to search for patterns as without some order,
there are no investment strategies. Instead, it es a world dominated by
noise. Whether it is Trump tariffs, CBs (incessant debate –‘too dovish or too
hawkish?’) or Facebook and the role of social media, investors embark on a
fairly meaningless task of calculating likely damages while trying to rationalize
these actions within confines of conventional economic theory (trade is good;
lack of it is bad). As a result, there is a growing chorus of shrill voices about
onset of trade wars and/or need for deep regulatory changes. Similarly, any
Source: WTO; Macquarie Research, March 2018 widening of spreads (however small) is almost immediately interpreted as the
onset of major liquidity contraction. In a modern world of signals, noise & AI-
Key Equity Indices – Value vs. Quality
driven re-pricing, reality is just ‘fake news’(or basically facts you don’t like).
(Jan’16=100) – struggles to outperform
109 De-globalization is a fact of life; both trade & capital
107 .
105 Amongst all the nois