中国省际资本存量与资本回报率.doc

中国省际资本存量与资本回报率
第31卷第11期统计研究Vol. 31. 2014年11月Statistical Research Nov. 2014 中国省际资本存量与资本回报率贾润森张四灿内容提要:本文以资本折旧率为突破口,利用经济计量的方法估计出不同省份的资本折旧率,重新估算了中国省际资本存量,在此基础上,对资本回报率进行了再估算。结果显示:(1)折旧率的变化不仅反映了区域间经济发展水平的差异,也在一定程度上反映了经济周期波动。(2)中国资本产出比近年来增长很快,但与世界工业强国相比,我国资本产出比尚处于合理范围内,资本积累未出现过剩迹象。(3)资本回报率直到金融危机前都保持在相对较高水平,但此后出现反转。省际间资本回报率的差异表现出缩小趋势,可以推断危机后较低的资本回报率更多反映了资本在不同产业和不同类型企业之间的错配。与过度投资相比,这或许是中国投资目前面临的更严重问题。关键词:资本存量;折旧率;资本产出比;资本回报率中图分类号:F222文献标识码:A文章编号:1002-4565(2014)11 -0035 -08 Chinese Provincial Capital Stock and Return to Capital Jia Runsong Zhang Sican Abstract: This paper takes capital depreciation rate seriously. We employ econometric method to capital depreciation rate of different provinces and the corresponding provincial capital stock at the same time. Then. we put forward new estimates of return to capital based on the above results. The results show that: (1) Changes of depreciation rate not only ref1ect the difference between different regions in economic development. but. to some extent. ref1ect economic volatility. (2) The ratio of capital-output of China increases sharply in recently years. heless. it remains within a reasonable range pared with other industrial powers. which means there is no signs of excess capital accumulatio!,. (3) Return to capital maintained a high level before global / nancial crisis. followed by dramatic decline in the afterwards. Capital allocation efficiency in provinces, which constitute one of the backbone of return on capital, has improved in the past two decades. As a consequence, we can infer that low return to capital is more a ref1ection of capital misallocation in different industries and enterprises than overinvestment, which may be a much more serious problem confronting Chinese investment. Key
words: Capital Stock; Depreciation Rate; Capital-Output Ratio; Return to Capital 几何下降的假定得到了学术界的普遍采用。应用永-'\~I言续盘存法估算资本存量涉及4个变量:投资数据、投资本存量是宏观E济分析中一个非常关键的变资价格指数、基期资本存量和资本折旧率①,对于前量,绝大多数增长理论与波动理论的实证研究都离两个变量,中国官方统计年鉴有对应统