基于产业视角的北京市能源消费与经济增长关系分析.doc


基于产业视角的北京市能源消费与经济增
长关系分析#
檀勤良,刘珊珊,魏咏梅,张兴平,邓艳明,杨海平*
5
10
(华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京 102206)
摘要:在生产理论的框架下,利用面板数据模型,从产业的角度对北京市经济增长和能源消
费之间的动态响应关系进行分析。选取北京市三次产业 1980-2010 年的数据,在面板单位根
检验和面板协整分析的基础上,利用面板误差修正模型检验了北京市能源消费和经济增长之
间的长短期 Granger 因果关系。检验结果说明:北京市短期存在经济增长和能源消费的双向
Granger 因果关系,而长期存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向 Granger 因果关系。因素分解
结果说明生产效应是能源消费增长的主要驱动力,结构效应和强度效应则延缓了能源消费总
量的增长,但生产效应明显大于结构效应和强度效应之和。
关键词:能源消费;面板协整分析;Granger 因果关系;因素分解
中图分类号:F127
15
Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic
Growth in Beijing: Evidence from Cross-Industry Panel
Data
Tan Qinliang, Liu Shanshan, Wei Yongmei, Zhang Xingping, Deng Yanming,
20
25
30
35
40
Yang Haiping
(Economics and Management School, North China Electric Prower University, Beijing 102206)
Abstract: This paper applies the most recently developed panel unit root, heterogeneous panel
cointegration and panel-based error correction models to investigate the causal relationship
between energy consumption and economic growth for three industries in Beijing during the
period of 1980-2010. The empirical results indicate that there is bidirectional Granger causality in
the short run, but unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to economic
growth in the long run. The empirical results indicate that the production effect plays a
significant positive role in increasing energy consumption, while the structu