中长期电力负荷预测.pdf

西安理工大学硕士学位论文 II 西安理工大学硕士论文 III 论文题目:中长期电力负荷预测 学科名称:电力系统及其自动化研究生:白睿博 签名: 指导教师:姚李孝教授签名: 摘要负荷预测是电力系统负荷预测的重要组成部分,高精度的负荷预测对于节约电网运营成本,提高电能质量,保障系统安全稳定具有重要的现实意义;准确的负荷预测有助于提高系统的安全性和稳定性。提高负荷预测技术水平,有利于用电管理,有利于合理安排电网运行方式和机组检修计划,有利于节煤、节油和降低发电成本,有利于制定合理的电源建设规划,有利于提高电力系统的经济效益和社会效益。本文首先简要描述了电力负荷预测的概述、意义以及国内国外的研究现状。接着详细介绍电力负荷预测的方法,分别介绍了负荷预测的经典方法、负荷预测的新技术以及组合预测的方法。并且在此基础上,根据某地区的电力负荷以及经济发展情况对该地区进行了中长期的负荷预测。在预测过程中,本文运用了灰色理论预测法、基于灰色的等维新息法、组合预测法对某地区负荷进行预测,并对预测数据进行对比分析,得到最适合某地区的地区负荷预测方法,从而进一步提高负荷预测准确率。最后对电力系统负荷预测的发展前景做了展望关键词:电力系统;中长期负荷预测;灰色理论预测法;基于灰色的等维新息法;组合预测法; 西安理工大学硕士学位论文 IV Title: Medium and long-term load forecasting Major :Power system and automation Name :Ruibo Bai Signature: Supervisor :Prof. Lixiao YAO Signature: Abstract Load forecasting is an important part of power system load forecasting, the high precision load forecasting grid operators for cost savings, improve power quality, guarantee system security and stability has important practical significance. Accurate load forecasting helps improve system security and stability. Improvi ng the level Load forecasting techniques is benefit for power management,conducive to reas onable arrangements for grid operation mode and crew maintenance plan, conducive to co al, fuel-efficient and lower cost of power generation, power is conducive to the development of rational construction planning, help to improve power system economic and social benefits. This article briefly describes the overview of the significance of research status at home and abroad as well as power load by a detailed description of the power load forecasting method, introduced classical me thods, new technologies and load forecasting method to predict the load nd on this basis, according to the power load and the economic development of certain areas of the region's long-term load forecasting. In the course of the study, using grey pred