交通经济论文.pdf

: .
even tiny bettering-off in average travel times still hold. Obvious route switches occur
merely when the reference points fall in a certain interval. Then, taking the fourth model
(M4) as an example, the sensitivities of some parameter (-combinations) are examined,
the possible implications are discussed. The new framework shows flexibility in incorpo-
rating different factors in relation to individual bounded rationality and population dynam-
ics. The possible applications may involve modeling group choice evolutions in occurrence
of unexpected incidents, from the aspect of individual risk attitude, perception and deci-
sion schemes. Some limitations of the proposed framework and other research opportuni-
ties are discussed.
Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Day-to-day traffic dynamics has aroused great interest recently, for its flexibility to allow a wide range of behavioral rules,
levels of aggregation, and traffic models to be synthesized in the same modeling framework (Watling and Hazelton, 2003),
and is believed to be the most appropriate for analyzing traffic equilibrium processes (He et al., 2010). Researches related to
day-to-day traffic dynamics have been conducted in many perspectives. Cascetta and Cantarella (1991), Hu and Mahmassani
(1995) examined the day-to-day and within-day traffic dynamics under different conditions, Cascetta