Extending the START framework - Computation of optimal capability development portfolios using a decision theory approach.pdf

Regular Paper
Extending the START
Framework: Computation
of Optimal Capability
Development Portfolios
Using a Decision Theory
Approach
EXTENDING THE START FRAMEWORK
A. Elfes,* C. R. Weisbin, R. Manvi, V. Adumitroaie, W. P. Lincoln, and K. Shelton
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109
Received 3 January 2006; Accepted 6 September 2006, after one or more revisions
Published online in Wiley InterScience (.com).
DOI
ABSTRACT
Space program managers and decision-makers must make strategic investment decisions
regarding R&D on technologies, capabilities, missions, and programs, while under a variety
of constraints. These constraints include limited budgets, infrastructure, and time restrictions,
as well as programmatic and institutional priorities. Acquiring, analyzing, and synthesizing the
large amount of information required for a rational decision poses an enormous challenge. To
address these challenges, the authors have developed analytical methodologies pu-
tational systems to support strategic decision-makers within NASA: the START (STrategic
Assessment of Risk and Technology) approach, a methodology allowing the quantitative
assessment of technologies, capabilities, missions, scenarios and programs in support of
human decision-makers. Supporting the START methodology, new analytical formulations
were added, addressing additional decision issues intrinsic to space programs. These include:
(1) a utility-based assessment of capabilities and technologies; (2) modeling dependencies
between capabilities and/or between capabilities and programmatic goals; (3) modeling the
impact of partial plete funding; (4) compute temporally optimal portfolios for
staging funding over time; and (5) provide a robustness assessment of the analysis results.
We also assess the results, and present sensitivity analysis procedures for validating the
*Author to whom all correspondence s