自然灾害风险评估综述.docx

自然灾害风险评估综述
Summary of Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
李大卫① LI Da-wei;石树中② SHI Shu-zhong;杨福平② YANG Fu-ping;
周新民② ZHOU Xin-min
(①浙江省地震灾害防御中心,杭州 310013;②浙江省工程地震研究所,杭州 310013)
(①Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310013,China;
②Earthquake Engineering Research Institute of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310013,China)
摘要: 近年来,自然灾害风险评估研究学科发展迅速,学术界对其理论中的一些问题存在着不同的看法。本文对自然灾害风险的定义、自然灾害系统、灾害风险的形成机理、危险性、脆弱性认识等方面内容进行归纳、阐述;通过列举分析自然灾害风险评估领域常用的一些数学方法,指出自然灾害评估定量化的趋势已经愈加明显;多灾种综合风险评估由于其更贴近现实的特点,决定了它风险评估学科未来发展的趋势。
Abstract: In recent years, the natural disaster risk assessment research subject develops rapidly, and there are different views on some issues in the academia. This paper summarizes and describes the definition, the system, the formation mechanism, the danger and the vulnerability of the natural disaster risk, and by listing mon mathematic methods of analyzing natural disaster risk assessment, this paper points out that there is a obvious quantitative trend of natural disasters assessment; The multi prehensive risk assessment is decided to be the future development trend of the disaster risk assessment with the feature of closing to the reality.
关键词: 风险评估;自然灾害风险系统;形成机理;脆弱性;危险性;数学方法;定量化;多灾种综合风险评估
Key words: risk assessment;natural disaster risk system;formation mechanism;vulnerability;danger;mathematic method;quantitative; multi prehensive risk ass