汽车行业2009年投资策略—等待春天.pdf

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ᣕ㓁Ԣ䗋DŽЁ೑≑䔺䳔∖乚ܜ GDP 㑺ϔϾᄷᑺˈ08 ᑈ᳿㟇 09 ᑈϞञᑈ
≑䔺Ꮦഎⱘय़࡯ҡ✊䕗໻ˈ㸠Ϯᑩ䚼᳝ᳯ೼ 09 ᑈЁᳳߎ⦄DŽ݇⊼ৃ㛑ߎ
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5 ≑䔺㸠Ϯ 09 ᑈϮ㒽ࠡԢৢ催DŽ09 ᑈϞञᑈᇚ䴶ᇍ催෎᭄ǃԢ䫔䞣ˈⲜ-80
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䋳ᬍ୘៤ᴀय़࡯DŽ乘ᳳॳᴤ᭭ӋḐϟ䰡ᬍ୘៤ᴀ㑺 12%ˈ䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳ޣॳᴤ᭭੠ᬓㄪ 5
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ᇐ㟈व䔺Ꮦഎ䫔ଂᬒ㓧ˈ೑䰙㒣⌢ᬒ㓧ᏺᴹߎষ䳔∖य़࡯ㄝDŽ ljⷁᳳ䫔ଂಲᱪЁᳳय़࡯ҡ໻üü≑䔺㸠Ϯ
2008 ᑈ 11 ᳜᳜ᑺߚᵤ᡹ਞNJ2008 ᑈ 11 ᳜ 12 ᮹
䔺㸠Ϯⷁᳳय़࡯ձ✊䕗໻ˈԚҢЁᳳᴹⳟ㸠ϮԄؐ෎ᴀ㾕ᑩˈ㓈ᣕଚ≑ 5
lj乘ᳳ䗋༅ᳳⱘᡩ䌘䗝ᢽüü≑䔺㸠Ϯ 2008
⫼䔺ĀᔎѢ໻ᏖāǃЬ⫼䔺ĀЁᗻāDŽ䞡⚍݇⊼ᅛ䗮ᅶ䔺ǃϔ≑䕓䔺ǃ┡
ᑈϟञᑈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹NJ ......... 2008 ᑈ 6 ᳜ 18 ᮹
᷈ࡼ࡯ǃЁ೑䞡≑ǃ∳䪗≑䔺ㄝˈㄝᕙ㸠Ϯ䳔∖ᔶ࢓ⱘད䕀ˈ09 ᑈЁᳳ
ᇚᰃᬣᛳᯊ↉DŽ
䞡⚍݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟ǃԄؐঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻
EPS˄ܗ˅ PE
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ᅛ䗮ᅶ䔺 11 10 11 фܹ
ϔ≑䕓䔺 19 10 10 фܹ
┡᷈ࡼ࡯ 8 6 8 фܹ
Ё೑䞡≑ 8 10 12 фܹ
∳䪗≑䔺 9 9 9 фܹ
䞥啭≑䔺 9 10 12 ๲ᣕ
Ϟ⍋≑䔺 8 15 18 ๲ᣕ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳⊼˖㙵ӋЎ 2008 ᑈ 11 ᳜ 21 ᮹ᬊⲬӋDŽ
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