内部控制系统评价定量分析的数学模型(pdf 9).pdf

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2005 年 8 月系统工程理论与实践第 8 期
文章编号:1000 6788 (2005) 08 0010 08
内部控制系统评价定量分析的数学模型
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王立勇,石柱鲜
(吉林大学商学院,吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春 130012)
摘要: 运用可靠性理论和数理统计知识来构建内部控制系统评价的数学分析模型,利用该模型可计算
程序的可靠度和系统可靠度,从而判断内部控制的效果. 通过敏感性分析得到结构重要性和可靠度重要
性,据此判断程序可靠性对系统可靠性的影响程度,为内部控制系统改进提供支持. 最后,分析了在评价
中如何考虑成本的问题,以及参数的估计,这有利于提高模型的完整性和准确性.
关键词: 内部控制;评价;可靠性;敏感性分析;故障率
中图分类号: F230 文献标识码: A
Mathematical Model for Quantitative Analysis of Internal Control Evaluation
WANGLi yong , SHI Zhu xian
(Business School ,Quantitative Research Center of Economics ,Changchun 130012 ,China)
Abstract: The paper sets up with reliability theory and knowledge of statistics a mathematical model of internal
control system evaluation , putes importance for each process and the whole system , with which we can
evaluate the effect of internal control. Also we can get structural importance and reliability importance through
sensitivity analysis , with which we can estimate the influence of reliability for each process on liability for system ,
which supports the improvement of internal control. Finally , the paper analyzes the factor of cost in evaluation of
internal control and estimation of parameters , this is propitious to improving the integrality and accuracy of the model.
Key words: internal control ; evaluation ; reliability ; sensitivity analysis ; failure rate
1 问题的提出
内部控制评价发展至今