基于灰色系统理论的宁波港物流需求预测研究.doc

毕业论文(设计)正文
题目:基于灰色系统理论的宁波港物流需求预测研究
Logistics Demand Forecast Research of Ningbo
Port Based on The Gray Theory
学院:计算机与信息工程学院
专业:物流管理
班级:物流0901
学号:0912600110
学生姓名:王正财
指导教师:柳虹
二○一三年五月
基于灰色系统理论的宁波港物流需求预测研究
摘要:对于港口物流未来需求的预测是制定港口物流发展计划的重要依据,其精确度能为港口物流园区的规划和建设提供强有力的理论支持。灰色GM(1,1)模型仅仅是运用按时间排列的数据建立的模型,因此实际结果会产生一些误差。本文将灰色GM(1,1)预测模型与灰色马尔科夫链模型结合用于预测宁波港的总货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量,建立了灰色-马尔科夫链模型,也就是利用马尔科夫链模型来修正灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测值,从而大大提高预测的精确度。基于该模型,采用宁波港近八年的相关数据,预测宁波港以后五年的物流需求,为宁波港接下去一轮发展提供数据支撑。最后,分析比较使用灰色-马尔科夫链前后相关预测值的各项精确度指标,实验结果证明灰色-马尔科夫链模型预测精确度比较高,预测误差比较小。
关键词:宁波港,吞吐量,预测,马尔科夫链,灰色GM(1,1)模型
Logistics Demand Forecast Research of Ningbo Port Based on Gray Theory

Abstract: Port logistic demand forecast is an important basis for the planning of the development of port forcast precision can provide port logistic planning with a strong theoretical GM(1,1) model is simply established according to the time series forecasting has inevitable errors. This paper predicts general cargo,container number ,foreign trade cargo throughput of Ningbo port bining the grey G(1,1) model and the Markov Chain model and using the Markov chain model to correct the predictive value of the gray G(1,1) model ,which greatly improving the accuracy of the forecast. According to nearly eight years of data of Ningbo port,the thesis predicts the Ningbo port logistic needs for the next five years,which provides an effective data support for the next round of development of Ningbo port. In the end,this paper will analyze pare the precision index of predictive value of the grey G(1,1) model and the Markov Chain this example , we can conclude that the precision of the grey—Markov Chain model is relatively higher and the prediction error paratively lower.
Keywords: Ningbo port;throughput capacity;predicition;Markov Chain;grey G(1,1) model
正文目录
第1章绪论 5
5
7
7
8
第2章预测方法简介 9
常用预测方法 9
灰色-马尔科夫链模型预测方法 10
第3章灰