摩根斯坦利：地震对日本经济影响的初步分析.pdf

March 22, 2011 Japan Research Tohoku Earthquake: First Assessment The enormous scale of the disaster on March 11, which released 350x more energy than the Hanshin Earthquake of 1995, continues to have serious implications. Also, concerns about the Fukushima nuclear facilities remain. Our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this tragedy, and we hope for the ess of ongoing relief operations. A First Assessment: It is far too early to grasp the full implications of the tragedy and the overall situation remains fluid. This piece begins the debate over the impact on the macroeconomy, sectors panies. Macro Impact: Short, sharp downturn, followed by a U- or V-shaped recovery. ary and currency policy react first, followed by several large fiscal packages. We foresee short term yen stability, followed by yen weakness. Equity Strategy: There is no rush, but every dip is a dip to buy. The three key factors: Earnings disruptions will last only a few quarters. Valuations suggest support at TOPIX around 800 (CAPE at ). Sentiment, currently dominant, depends on nuclear developments, power disruptions, and clarity in the financial system. Industry Analysis: The major debates concern (a) damage to production, (b) potential disruption of power supply, and (c) future demand impact. Analysts have identified sectors with potential for bottlenecks, and overall impact on panies. We present the sector analyses according to breadth of impact in each sector. Of course, this order does not necessarily imply investment attractiveness. Note: The dates and magnitudes in this graph are illustrative only. Source: Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business panies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decisio