高盛-中国纺织服饰和鞋类.pdf

November 18, 2008 China: Textile, Apparel & Footwear
November 18, 2008
China: Textile, Apparel & Footwear


Initiating on Ports Design; introducing a new investment framework
A three-pronged investment approach
In this report we introduce our new investment framework for analyzing BELLE INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS (); BUY
China’s branded retailers. Our three-pronged framework consists of Key data Current
Price (HK$)
analyzing: 1) single-store economics; 2) growth potential; and 3) earnings 12 month price target (HK$)
Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 26, / 3,
resilience. We apply our framework to our two main specialty retailers: Foreign ownership (%) --
Belle and Ports Design.
12/07 12/08E 12/09E 12/10E
EPS (HK$) New
Belle (, Buy): Remains our top pick EPS revision (%) () ()
EPS growth (%)
Belle’s current share price implies zero revenue growth in 2009E, based on EPS (dil) (Rmb) New
P/E (X)
our estimates. Given the large number of new stores added in 2008, sales P/B (X)
EV/EBITDA (X)
per store will need to drop by 25% for Belle to not have revenue growth. Dividend yield (%)
This, we believe, is unlikely. Under our new investment framework, Belle ROE (%)
has the best store economics in footwear and the 2nd best store economics
for pany overall. pany still has large expansion potential PORTS DESIGN LTD. (); NEUTRAL
thanks to a multi-brand portfolio. Healthy margins and low fixed costs
Key data Current
provide short-term earnings protection. We maintain our 12-month target Price (HK$)
12 month price target (HK$)
price of HK$, based on 14X 2009E P/E. Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 4, /
Foreign ownership (%) --
Ports (, Neutral): Strong fundamentals but no catalysts 12/07 12/08E 12/09E 12/10E
EPS (HK