1/24
文档分类:研究报告

荷兰银行05年7月中国银行业研究报告.pdf


下载后只包含 1 个 PDF 格式的文档,没有任何的图纸或源代码,查看文件列表

特别说明:文档预览什么样,下载就是什么样。

0/100
您的浏览器不支持进度条
下载所得到的文件列表
荷兰银行05年7月中国银行业研究报告.pdf
文档介绍:
Tuesday 5 July 2005
Banking on China


Takeaways from The Amazing Race

Key takeaways from ABN AMRO's recent China financials conference
were: mortgage growth is under pressure; asset quality is stable
but NPLs are set to rise; margin upside seems limited without a rate
hike. We maintain our cautious stance on the sector.


China
Valuation table
Banks

FY2005F
B'berg Rec. Price Price Target +/- PBV PER P/PPP Yield ROE
(Rmb) (Rmb) (%) (X) (X) (X) (%) (%)
CMB 600036 CH ADD 6.00 6.40 6.7 2.7 17.3 5.7 1.3 16.3
HXB 600015 CH SELL 3.68 3.10 -15.8 1.5 14.1 3.6 0.6 10.9
MBC 600016 CH SELL 4.70 3.90 -17.0 2.0 13.5 4.4 1.7 16.1
SPDB 600000 CH SELL 7.43 5.60 -24.6 2.1 14.7 3.3 1.4 14.5
SZDB 000001 CH SELL 5.84 4.50 -22.9 2.3 37.2 3.8 0.5 6.4
Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts








Mortgage growth facing pressure
Most banks attending our conference are targeting 20% loan growth this year.
Although slower than last year, this pace of growth is still brisk. Mortgages will likely
be the highest growth sector, as almost every bank plans to grow aggressively in
this area. But banks are facing near-term pressures on mortgages due to the sharp
drop in property deals and rising instances of early repayments, as many investors
look to exit the property market.
Asset quality broadly stable, but NPLs set to rise
Banks say they have so far seen no significant deterioration in asset quality from
anti-speculative measures the government imposed earlier this year on the property
market. The consensus among banks is that property prices are unlikely to fall
sharply because the government wants to maintain stable and sustainable growth
and will not allow a collapse in prices. Despite this, the absolute level of NPLs is set
to rise due to the government's austerity measures.
Near-term margin upside seems limited without a rate hike
Despite the relaxation of the lending rate ceiling in October 2004, banks have been
unable to lend at higher rates. They still have very limited pricing power over
existing customers. This reflects the petition among Chinese banks for
high-quality corporate clients. It also seems unlikely that banks will significantly
adjust their customer mix in the short term. Market-driven interest rates (inter-bank,
government yields, discounted bills) have all been falling this year and will partially
offset margin gains from the PBOC's October 2004 rate hike.
Cautious sector view maintained
We believe there are significant NPL risks going forward given the uncertainties in
the property market and deteriorating corporate cash flows from excess capacity.
However, our meetings confirm our view that China Merchants Bank (CMB) is one of
the best managed banks in the sector. CMB is also the only stock in the sector on Analyst
which we have a positive rating.
Simon Ho 内容来自淘豆网www.taodocs.com转载请标明出处.
非法内容举报中心
文档信息
  • 页数24
  • 收藏数0 收藏
  • 顶次数0
  • 上传人管理资源吧
  • 文件大小0 KB
  • 时间2011-09-08