中国造船业（摩根斯坦利）.pdf

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MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
ASIA/PACIFIC


Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng
@
+86 21 6279 8504
Karen Zu
@
+86 21 6279 7042
December 12, 2007 Kate Zhu, CFA
@
+852 2848 6843
Industry View China Shipbuilding
In-Line
Initiating Coverage: Global

Leader, China-Made

We initiate coverage of the China Shipbuilding
industry with an In-Line view: In the long run, we are
positive on China’s shipbuilding industry and expect it to
surpass Korea and e the global leader. In the
medium term, we are concerned that the industry cycle
may peak in light of the potential global recession. In the
short term, we expect Chinese shipbuilders to continue
posting respectable earnings growth despite rising
material costs and accelerated RMB appreciation.
Global Leader, China-Made: Given their cost-cutting
advantage, Chinese shipyards are taking market share
from Korea and Japan through rapid efficiency
improvement, aggressive capacity expansion, and new
product diversification. We believe this trend will
continue, and we expect China to e the world’s
largest shipbuilding country by 2015.
Shipbuilding cycle near the peak: The total order
book as a percentage of the world’s fleet has jumped to
40% for tankers, 56% for bulk, and 60% for containers,
implying more than 10% compound annual growth for
the world fleet, surpassing the single-digit growth of
seaborne trade. Also, a US slowdown, followed by a
global recession, could cause shipbuilding demand to
weaken. Our medium-term industry view is bearish.
Strong backlog supports growth until 2010: We
believe that Chinese shipbuilders can keep delivering
growth, thanks to their more than three-year order
backlog and continuous capacity expansion. Risk of
order cancellations is low, as the down payment ratio is
high.
Investment Strategy: Despite our medium-term