麦格理-印度-宏观经济-贸易限制对印度的影响.pdf

INDIA India Economics
Fact Sheet - India’s Trade Statistics Impact of trade restrictions on India
 India’s exports to GDP stand at
%. Conclusion: With an increase in trade restrictive measures, we look at how
India stands to be impacted. At the outset, exports are meaningful for India at
 India’s goods exports stand at ~19% of GDP - we believe that India will likely be impacted by the second round
~12% of GDP and services exports impact of a potential escalation in trade restrictions, which can adversely impact
at 7% of GDP. world GDP / trade growth. Currently we are building in a stable export growth
 In dollar terms, India’s trade surplus outlook for FY19, on the back of a healthy global growth forecast.
with the US stands at US$ . US China trade dispute: The outlook for the global trade scenario has been
th
(9 largest) compared to China’s at marred by ongoing trade protectionist policy steps being taken by the US (see
US$375bn (the largest). the detailed note from our global team here). In our view, the US
 India’s main export market is USA administration’s working mechanism is making it clear that China remains the
(% of total exports) followed by primary focus with regard to trade restrictions. Until now, the response from
UAE (% of total) and Hong Kong China too has been measured and our China economist believes t