商务英语谈判.doc

3. The application of game theory in the issue of integrity
Game theory is a borrowed term from petitive, antagonism and decision-making issues like chess, poker and war. Its accurate definition is: A number of individuals, teams and anizations who faced with certain environmental conditions and under the provisions of certain constraints, choosing and taking choices from their behaviors and strategies relying on the information available at the same time or essively, once or more times in order to obtain the corresponding results and earnings on their own.
3. 博弈论在诚信问题中的应用
博弈论是从竞争、对抗和决策问题借来的词,如象棋、***和战争。它的准确定义是:一些个人,团队和其他组织,面对一定的环境条件,并根据一定的约束的规定,从他们的行为和战略依托同时或先后得到的信息,进行选择或多次选择,以获得相应的结果和自己的收益。
“Prisoner’s Dilemma”. For example, on one case, two suspects were interrogated separately there are only two strategies of frank and detail to choose from. When the two suspects shared confess, they will be sentenced to a year in prison, while the denial one will be sentenced to 10 years in prison; if both parties denied, the two sides will be sentenced to two years in prison by the court due to the lack of evidence, as shown in table 2-3.
Table 2-3 Prisoners’ Dilemma
Suspect B
Suspect A
To deny
To be frank
To deny
2years,2years
10years,1year
To be frank
1year,10years
5years,5years
(1)“囚徒困境”。例如,在一个案例中,两名犯罪嫌疑人被单独审问只有两个策略可供选择,要么坦诚要么抵赖。当两名嫌犯共同承认,他们将被判处一年监禁,而抵赖的一个将被判处有期徒刑10年;如果两人都否认,因法院缺乏证据这两人将被判处两年徒刑,如表3所示。
表2-3 囚徒困境
嫌疑人 B
嫌疑人A
不认罪
认罪
不认罪
2 年,2 年
10 年, 1 年
认罪
1年,10年
5年,5年
In this model, the final choices of the two strategies are to be frank. For A, if B tells frankly, a confession or a denial will lead 5or10 years prison time to him. So being frank is better; if B denied, a confession or a denial will lead a year or 2 years to A. So, being frank is A’s optimal strategy. Similarly, B’s optimal strategy is also being frank. They adopted same strategies, therefore, the price they paid is also same, that all been sentenced to five years in prison.